Assessment of conformity to demarcated environmentally sensitive areas in land use plans: The case of Abuja, Nigeria

Evidence Enoguanbhor; Eveline Enoguanbhor; Gladys Chukwurah; Matthew Isimah; Chioma  John-Nsa; Emmanuel Oloruntoba; Chefor Fotang; Therence Ngwator; Ganbobga  Yangni; Olayinka  Oladosu; Michael  Agunbiade

doi:10.38140/trp.v84i.7985

Authors

Evidence Enoguanbhor Humboldt University, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4752-3063
Eveline Enoguanbhor Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0009-0000-6550-5315
Gladys Chukwurah University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2356-0591
Matthew Isimah University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4679-5788
Chioma John-Nsa University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0534-3091
Emmanuel Oloruntoba Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0009-0007-4093-9513
Chefor Fotang Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1146-6805
Therence Ngwator Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0009-0009-3477-7647
Ganbobga Yangni Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7621-1144
Olayinka Oladosu Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0009-0008-5886-2945
Michael Agunbiade Brandenburg University of Technology, Germany https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5501-9997

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.38140/trp.v84i.7985

Keywords:

strategic action, sustainable regional planning, strategic environmental assessment, adjusted urban land scenario, environmental impact magitude, environmental impact significance

Abstract

Environmentally sensitive areas such as lands demarcated for urban green infrastructure and regional forest reserves by urban and regional plans are crucial to be protected due to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural services they provide. However, such environmentally sensitive areas are being threatened by various human activities, including urban dynamics. The current study, therefore, aimed to deploy existing scenario alternatives to predict and evaluate the environmental impacts of the possible future urban dynamics in environmentally sensitive areas to support the core of the Strategic Environmental Assessment process for sustainable urban and regional development planning and policy. The study deployed Geographic Information Systems, existing land cover maps, land use plans, calibrated and validated land use/land cover model, and scenario alternatives to predict the possible future urban and regional land dynamics using the Markov model. The matrix method of environmental impact magnitude and environmental sensitivity was used to define environmental impact significance. In so doing, the environmental impact magnitude in the environmentally sensitive area is categorised into very low (> 0% <5%), low (>= 5% < 10%), medium (>= 10% < 15%), high (>= 15% < 20%), and very high (>= 20%). Key findings showed a significant and non-significant environmental impact of the possible future urban dynamics in environmentally sensitive areas associated with the Business As Usual scenario and alternative scenarios, respectively. The information from the current study is useful to support decision-makers in addressing problems associated with the core of the Strategic Environmental Assessment process and its application to land use planning in Sub-Saharan Africa in particular and other parts of the Global South in general.