Trends and changes in the South African population structure: Some implications for planning and policy-making

Abstract

Future social, political, economic and environmental changes will to a large extent be propelled by the size, geographic distribution and demographic compilation of populations. This article highlights the most important demographic shifts that the South African society will be subject to in the next few decades, and considers some implications of these changes for planning and policy making in South Africa. These changes are: a sharp decline in the population growth rate, the progressive ageing of the population, a continued decline in life expectancy, and a shift in the migration and distribution patterns of the population. These changes entail, amongst others that planners do not need to assume a steep increase in population numbers in their projections of the future needs of the population anymore. The rise in the number of the aged will, however, pose very specific challenges to both planners and government, while the expected increase in urbanisation will increase the demand for basic services as well as the pressure on existing infrastructure and facilities.