Unplanned regional development: Public perception of urban sprawl in the Tapal Kuda Region, East Java, Indonesia

Abstract

The northern coastal hinterland of East Java, known as the Tapal Kuda Region (TKR) and the Pendalungan cultural zone, is undergoing spatial transformation. However, community participation in the development of the TKR has remained relatively low. This study aims to analyse the Pendalungan community perceptions of urban sprawl, as understanding these perceptions is essential for increasing participatory development in the region. A mixed-methods research design was employed. Quantitative analysis used the Normalised Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) to measure built-up area density from satellite imagery for the years 2015 to 2025. Accuracy was assessed using overall accuracy, user accuracy, and the Kappa coefficient. Qualitative data on community perceptions were collected through in-depth interviews with a purposively selected sample of the Pendalungan community and analysed using a thematic deductive method with NVivo software. The results indicate an NDBI of 0.132, reflecting significant urban sprawl characterised by low-density development along the Daendels Road in the TKR. Despite being perceived as unplanned, the Pendalungan community views urban sprawl positively, as it enhances regional dynamics, by driving land prices higher, creating diversified job opportunities, and improving economic infrastructure. The findings show a misalignment between planning policies and community needs. Recommendations include inclusive development strategies that strengthen public participation, align planning with local aspirations, and reduce the risk of social conflict associated with industrial and residential development.