Future-ready buildings: Nigeria’s transition to low-carbon, climate-responsive housing

Abstract

The global climate crisis is compelling nations to adopt building resilience practices to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon and sustainable future. In tropical regions, where the impact of climate change is predicted to be most adverse, elevated outdoor temperatures may render existing housing unliveable. In Nigeria, much attention is not paid to designing climate-responsive buildings, making new and existing buildings vulnerable to extreme future climates. This study evaluates Nigeria’s readiness to transition to low-carbon and climate-responsive housing, using a mixed-methods approach, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative data. Weather data for 2020 and future projections for 2100 (based on RCP 8.5 scenarios) were generated using Meteonorm (v8) and analysed using Python in Jupyter Notebook. In addition, 68 peer-reviewed references were sourced from reputable online databases and informed a thematic analysis. The results show an average temperature increase of 5.2°C by 2100, with significant regional variability, highlighting the urgent need for climate-responsive building strategies. The thematic analysis identified financial constraints, weak policy frameworks, as well as technological and knowledge gaps as the primary barriers to sustainable building adoption in Nigeria. The study concludes that, for the habitability and sustainability of buildings, future-proofing strategies must prioritise solar shading, thermal mass insulation, passive cooling and ventilation, renewable energy integration, and low embodied energy materials. These measures must be supported by robust policies, incentives, and an effective building assessment framework to ensure the resilience and sustainability of Nigeria’s housing supply.